Like all disability representatives, our team has been highly anticipating the release of the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) 2025 disability decision metrics, known as the “waterfall chart.”

View chart here: FY25-Workload-Data

As 2026 enters the second quarter and continues to advance, the agency has just released this imperative data. Below we share the 5 most important things we noticed from the 2025 waterfall chart:

1.     The percentage of claims accepted at the initial level decreased by 2%.

Our Analysis: Notably, the total number of initial applications increased by 8% within the year. The 2% decrease indicates that claims were less likely to be approved at the initial level in comparison to 2024 – meaning it became more difficult for individuals to have their claims granted by SSA during initial application.

2.     There is an apparent fall-off in reconsideration requests.

Our Analysis: The percentage of reconsiderations approved did not change, meaning decisions at this stage continued to be predominantly denials. Compared to 2024, the total number of reconsiderations requested increased by almost 100,000, however, since more claimants applied for benefits as previously mentioned, it is evident that numerous initial level denials are not being requested for reconsideration. In fact, nearly a million were passed over in 2025.

3.     Appeals Council cases have nearly doubled from last year.

Our Analysis: The remand and denial percentages at the AC remained the same in 2025, but the total number of appeals to the AC increased by more than 38,000. In 2025, there were just over 90,000 hearing level denials, and more than 83,000 of those were appealed to the AC. This noticeable change means that although the total number of denials recorded at the AC increased, there was also a significantly higher number of claimants who appealed their denied hearing decisions.

4.     The total number of Federal Court appeals have decreased.

Our Analysis: Although the number of AC appeals increased exponentially, there were even fewer Federal Court appeals than in 2024. In fact, 2025 saw more than 2,000 fewer appeals to Federal Court, and with the total number of appeals to the AC increasing by 38,000, the decrease is a bit questionable. Yet, this is arguably reflective of the long wait times experienced throughout the determination process, specifically at the AC, however still a point to note.

5.     The remand rate for Federal Court continues to climb every year.

Our Analysis: For another year, the remand rate at the Federal Court level has increased, recording a 2% rise from 2024. The 2025 remand percentage builds on the prior increase observed between 2023 and 2024. Now sitting at a 65% remand rate, more appealed cases are remaining alive, and a majority are being sent back to the ALJ for another chance.

The Upside:

As a strong advocate for appealing cases, the Olinsky Law Group team observed positive changes at the AC and Federal Court levels. At the AC level, more representatives and claimants are appealing to the AC, preserving back benefits and keeping cases alive, indicating a promising sign for the later stages of the determination process. Regarding Federal Court, the continued remand rate increase is another noteworthy development, and more importantly, an encouraging indicator when appealing cases in Federal Court. Ultimately, more cases being appealed supports our team’s point of emphasis to other disability representatives. Especially after analyzing this year’s data, Olinsky Law Group will remain committed to encouraging other representatives to appeal their clients’ cases, not only preserving their back benefits, but because the later stages of the determination process is more in favor of claimants.

Something to Watch:

A shift in this year’s data at the reconsideration level reflected a critical aspect to assess. The apparent decrease in cases being requested for reconsideration is revealing and may be a new main issue to point out. Nearly one million claims denied opted to not request reconsideration. As seen throughout the rest of this year’s waterfall chart, continuing a case is imperative, especially since odds are trending to favor claimants toward the later stages of the determination process.

The Bottom Line:

The time to appeal is now.